The Bad News: It will mask global warming, and help fuel the skeptics' disbelief.
June 15, 2011
"Sun Cycle 24" --A Major Decline in Solar Activity Ahead
The signals of Sun Cycle 24 are clear: a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles point to the Sun heading for a rest period even as it's flaring up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory.
Sun spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.
Posted at 12:30 AM | Permalink
Hi Fred,
ReplyDeleteIn your blog post you said, about the projected effect of changes in the Sun’s activity:
The Good News: This will help mitigate the warming trend, a bit, for a while.
The Bad News: It will mask global warming, and help fuel the skeptics' disbelief.
May I ask you to reflect on this?
For some time, those who warn of Anthropogenic Global Warming have argued that the (minimal) changes in the Sun’s overall radiative output are not sufficient to account for changes in global temperatures.
Others have argued that we must take account also of the influence of that output on cloud formation, and its effect on global temperatures. They have claimed that this is a major effect, much more important than the ‘greenhouse effect.’
If now we are being warned that a quiescent Sun may mean a new period of global cooling, sufficient to “mask global waming” (to use your phrase), what does that say about the influence of the Sun on global climate?
Which theory would be closer to the truth, if in fact we are entering a new Maunder minimum due to changes in solar activity?
Worth a thought, Fred.
Peter G
Fred,
ReplyDeleteThe article didn't estimate how much the sun's output would change. I understand that it can't be accurately translated into temperature differences here on Earth, but they must have a guess for the Sun's output.
Do you know how much it might change?
Randy -- ormaybeimblind